Yili shares (600887) quarterly report comments: rapid revenue growth profitability improved
Comment event: The company achieved total operating income of 231 in the first quarter.
300,000 yuan, an increase of 17.
Of which operating income is 230.
7.7 billion, an increase of 17.
89%; interest rate income is 0.
53 trillion, down 70 a year.
Net profit attributable to mother 22.
76 trillion, with an increase of 8.
36%; after deduction 21.
82 trillion, with an increase of 9.
2%; budget benefit 0.
37 yuan; report gross profit margin 39.
95%, 1 increase per year / respectively.
15pct / 1.
61 points; net sales margin 9.
88%, a decline of 0 every year.
88 points, up 2 from the previous month.
First, the revenue growth exceeded expectations, the sales structure improved, and the gross profit margin increased significantly. The main revenue was again achieved on the basis of high growth in the first quarter of last year.
With a rapid growth of 89%, it surpassed market expectations.
Considering that the Spring Festival of the Year of the Pig is relatively high, it is not easy to achieve such a result.
According to the operating data disclosed by the company, liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, and cold drinks achieved revenues of 189 in the first quarter.
5.9 billion, 25.
5.2 billion, 15.
00 ppm, sales revenue accounted for 82.
52%, compared to last year’s changes of -1.
The growth rate of milk powder accelerated, followed by cold drinks, and the proportion of sales increased.
Milk powder was slightly better than expected, cold drinks were significantly better than expected, and their gross profit levels were higher.
With the changes in the sales structure of large categories and the continuous advancement of the respective structural upgrades of liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, and cold beverage products, the comprehensive sales gross profit margin was close to 40%, second only to the 2016 first quarter report.
Considering that the prices of raw milk and bulk powder increased slightly within a controllable range, the prices of packaging materials fell month-on-month, product structure upgrades and changes in the sales structure of large categories continued to increase gross margins and profitability within a certain period of time.
We judge that the gross profit margin of the main business in the future is expected to continue to rise, and then stabilize at a high level. Second, the operating cash flow is stable, the quality of the statements is acceptable, the expenses continue to be high, and the net operating cash flow is reported.
50 ppm, a decrease of 19 per year.
Cash inflows are normal, and cash may be affected by the growth of paid employee salaries, but it is also within a reasonable range.
According to the previous quarter, the fluctuation of operating cash flow is relatively stable this year.
The settlement of bills receivable and accounts receivable is generally 17.
5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of nearly 500 million US dollars, mainly due to the increase in sales reported and receivables and e-commerce, and dealers using bank acceptance bills to settle sales increased.
Advance receipts 29.
5.8 billion, down slightly previously.
Advance payment 21.
96 ppm, an increase of 50 in ten years.
42% was due to an increase in prepaid materials and advertising marketing.
Report first-tier company repayments13.
2.3 billion short-term loans, government subsidies fell by 30%.
Expense budget: Selling expense ratio 24.
07%, increase by 1 every year.
31pct, continuing the high expenditure level in the second half of last year; management expense ratio (including R & D) 4.
48%, an increase of 0 every year.
At 67pct, R & D investment increased. At the same time, the expansion of new business and construction of new business units increased part of management costs.
Regardless of the expenditures around production line and business expansion, or the layout of new business and expansion of overseas markets, the company has a long-term perspective on capital expenditures and expenses, and will benefit in the future.It is possible to continue to improve, and there will be some pressure on profits.
We still maintain our original judgment that the company may usher in an inflection point in net interest rate in 2020.
Third, the first quarter of the year was set to continue its high growth.无锡桑拿网 The top five billions have achieved a probability increase. Yili’s income has continued to grow rapidly in the past two years, letting everyone see the magnificence of “the elephant dancing”.
In the first quarter of this year, the higher-than-expected high-income growth set a gradual and continued high-growth adjustment. The goal of gradually increasing the tens of billions of dollars is expected to be achieved.
The profit indicators given by the company in the early stage were very cautious and conservative. The large number of profits in the first quarter also allowed the market to see the possibility of exceeding expectations.
Considering Yili’s current market strategy and layout, combined with the development of its core brands and products, we believe that it can achieve a target yield of 90 billion US 深圳spa会所 dollars.
With comprehensive consideration of costs, expenditures, and changes in profitability from the previous month, we determined that the net profit margin is expected to be flat or slightly lower, and gradually achieve the goal of maximizing profits and exceeding the target.
Looking forward to 2020, the market will continue to sink, and the penetration rate will further increase. At the same time, new businesses and new teams will gradually contribute to the increase, and overseas layout will begin to generate synergy.
Our core judgement: 2020 is a key year for sprinting, and also a harvest window for the implementation of the layout. The net interest rate promotion will usher in an inflection point.
Profit forecast and rating: It is estimated that the revenue growth rates for 2019-2021 will be 14%, 11%, and 10% respectively; the profit growth rates will be 13%, 16%, and 15%; the corresponding EPS will be 1.
The market has accepted the idea of Yili’s first layout and increase market share, and then increase profitability. It is normal for short-term revenue to grow faster than profit, and the core is to see the implementation of the company’s market strategy.
At present, the situation is good and beyond expectations, and the company’s top five billion yuan goal is expected to be successfully achieved.
Taking into account the estimated premium of the FMCG leader, the current estimated level of the mainstream liquor company is nominally, according to the 2019 performance, we give 30 times the PE, the stage target price is 36.
00 yuan, buy rating.
Risk reminders: fluctuations in raw material prices; deterioration of the sales environment; food safety issues, etc.